Tournament Preview: The Wells Fargo Classic
Here’s my breakdown of the course, the players, and the weather at the Wells Fargo Classic.
Writers note: I’ve changed the format of this quite a bit to streamline things. I’m hoping this makes it better for me to get this email out weekly.
The Course Notes
Each week, I tweet out a course breakdown based on my research. Here’s my overview of this week’s course:
A “championship level” course. It hosted the PGA Championship in 2017, and the Presidents Cup in 2022.
This course is very long. Recent editions have seen deep drivers win here.
Because of the length and the need for long irons, many approach shots will miss the green. This emphasizes scrambling and around the green play.
Most of the scoring here will be done on the Par 5s. Those who do well will need to avoid bogeys on Par 3s and Par 4s while capitalizing on Par 5 opportunities.
Storylines of the Week
Here are some storylines going into this tournament:
Weather Notes:
Here’s the weather outlook from Windfinder:
Thursday could be interesting, but the reduced field really takes away any chance for a tee-time advantage to anyone. Players who can hit it deep and are tops in club head speed will have yet another advantage in the first half of this tournament.
Top of the Board
Oddsmakers are favoriting Rory McIlroy (+650) and Xander Schauffele (+900) this week with single-digit odds. Neither of these guys have proven anything yet in 2024 (unless you count Rory’s win at the Zurich Classic team event) and feel like bad bets.
Top of the Model
Here are the top ten golfers in the model:
Rory McIlroy
Xander Schauffele
Wyndham Clark
Hideki Matsuyama
Byeong Hun An
Tony Finau
Justin Thomas
Will Zalatoris
Stephan Jaeger
Lucas Glover
Please note: these model-based rankings should not be used as a sole resource for making wagers. Additional context should be taken into consideration.
For a full listing of my PGA bets each week, as well as betting tips from the NFL, NBA, and more, consider a subscription to OWS Props Insider.